Factors to consider in Determining a White Christmas in the UK

Will it or won’t it? The speculation in the air is palpable. Will you wake up to a coating of white powder on Friday? Will this year be an official White Christmas?

If the cold weather continues the way it’s been going in the UK, the chances are looking good for a White Christmas this year. William Hill have received around 22,000 bets for it, and have have slashed the odds against it for nine days in a row.

As the cold spell that’s seen the UK transport system groaning under the pressure for the last few days seems to be letting up, current forecasts are for snow on Christmas Eve, but with temperatures around 2 degrees, Christmas Day is more likely to see rain than snow.

The last official White Christmas in the UK was in 2004. In London, the one before that was in 1996. While for most of us the phrase “White Christmas” conjures up images of blanket coverage matching all those Christmas cards, it takes much less than that. The traditional images come from the years between 1550 and 1850 when Britain, and the rest of Europe were caught in the clutches of “The Little Ice Age,” and winters were much more severe.

Nowadays, for the met Office to declare it, a single snowflake observed in any of the designated areas is all it takes, at any time in the 24 hours of December 25th. It doesn’t have to settle, and can be mixed in with rain and sleet.

With that in mind, there’s no wonder the bookies odds are sticking around 2/1 despite the weather forecast. In fact, the odds on offer are the shortest for over 30 years in most areas.

The areas that matter, in terms of making it official are:

* London, Buckingham Palace Liverpool, Albert Dock (Ladbrookes 11/8 – shortest ever odds)

* Aberdeen, Aberdeen FC grounds (William Hill 5/4)

* Glasgow Cathedral (William Hill 13/8)

* Edinburgh Castle (William Hill 2/1)

* Exeter, Met Office

* Manchester, Granada Studios

* Birmingham, Bullring (William Hill 2/1)

* Cardiff, Millennium Stadium

* Belfast, Aldergrove Airport

* Leeds, Elland Road

One Derbyshire punter will be wishing harder than most for White Christmases in London, Cardiff and Aberdeen. If his £1,700 stake pays off, he stands to win a record £14,700 payout.

Whether your fingers are crossed for a White Christmas or for a frost free one, it’s looking too close to call this year.